From strategic embrace to tariff tensions: The cyclical journey of India-US relations

Ever since India won independence, ties with the most powerful democracy in the world, the US, has seen extreme fluctuations, from lukewarm to very close and then tepid again! This is in sharp contrast to the relationship with the erstwhile USSR, with the cordiality of ties remaining strong even after its breakup into many countries, including Russia.

On the other hand, perhaps because of the New Delhi-Moscow bonding, at the very beginning, ties with the US had been tepid, with Uncle Sam being somewhat wary in assisting the developing nation with advanced technologies. Weirdly enough, for many decades since independence, the US had a closer relationship with Pakistan than with India, no matter that every now and again that ally had shifted from being a democracy to a military-dominated dictatorship.

However, due to the emergence of China as a major player in the global arena - so much so that it can today be considered as the third nodal point of a trilateral tussle for world ascendancy - the governments of India and the US had grown closer in recent years, as both had become concerned about China's growing power.

It may be recalled that the current US President Donald Trump, in his first term, even at-tended a rally that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had held for him in India.

If currently the relationship has turned frigid again, paradoxically, the fly in the ointment has been the very same Donald Trump! Apparently, the bear hug that Modi gave him in his official visit to the White House did not work this time around, and India could not escape Trump's focus on trade deficits in goods.

The US and India do about $212 billion in two-way trade, with the former having about a $40 billion deficit in goods with the latter. Trump's obsession with tariffs has made him overlook strategic concerns about geopolitics! Ignoring that India had been a close ally in US efforts to safeguard the Indo-Pacific region from Chinese influence, he announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports, then issued an executive order that would soon double it to 50%, to penalise India for continuing to purchase Russian oil!

But, far from capitulating to such blatant bullying tactics designed to cow down India, the latter retaliated by calling off the trade talks with the US and instead cosying up to Russia and China.

The sight of Modi in close confabulation at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in Tianjin with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping has obviously thrown cold water on Trump's tariff dreams, with his close officials advising mending of ties with India.

Thus, we have another round of oscillation and a possible repairing of the strained India-US ties!