Earthquake prediction still elusive, says seismology expert; stresses preparedness

Guwahati, Sept 17: Though earthquake research has advanced manifold, crucial factors like when, where, and what magnitude, etc, cannot be predicted exactly, the Director of the National Centre for Seismology, Dr OP Mishra, admitted.

In an interview with The Assam Tribune, Dr Mishra, who himself is a well-known seismologist, said that India is doing collaborative research with many countries like Japan, China, Taiwan, Russia, etc, and managed to cross three stages of earthquake prediction. But the fourth stage of research, that is predicting the epicenter, timing, and magnitude of earthquakes, cannot be done perfectly done till date.

“Now we can demarcate the earthquake-prone zones, fault lines, and even microzonation of the earthquake-prone areas. But the most crucial factors are still out of reach of the scientists. However, we hope that scientists will be able to predict earthquakes someday as the entire world is involved in earthquake studies,” he added.

Replying to a question on whether abnormal behaviour of animals, birds, and reptiles can lead to earthquake prediction, Dr Mishra revealed that some countries have been conducting research in this regard. He said that countries like Greece, China, Taiwan, etc, are trying to predict earthquakes by keenly observing the behaviour of reptiles, birds, and animals. But they found that the animals, reptiles, and birds behave abnormally for other reasons as well. One theory said that the cobras come out of their holes before an earthquake. But later it was found that cobras can come out because of other reasons too.

So it is difficult to predict an earthquake with that theory, he added.

Dr Mishra expressed the view that, as earthquakes cannot be predicted or prevented, the best way is to be prepared for them. He said that Japan and Taiwan have a robust system of dealing with earthquakes and have strengthened the buildings. India should do the same, and the buildings should be made earthquake resilient as far as possible. The old buildings should be retrofitted as per the norms of the Bureau of Indian Standards.

Dr Mishra said that the National Centre for Seismology has already carried out seismic microzonation of cities like Guwahati, Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai, Gangtok, etc, and Itanagar will be one of the major towns in the list in the next phase. The state authorities should ensure that the buildings follow the norms of the Bureau of Indian Standards.

Replying to a question whether the frequent earthquakes faced by Assam are a bad sign or indication of a mega earthquake, Dr Mishra said, “We cannot say these earthquakes are a prelude to a mega one. But one positive aspect is that the smaller quakes are releasing energy, which is a good sign. For example, the 5.8 magnitude quake that took place on Sunday was quite a major one. But very little damage was reported because energy was released by the previous smaller earthquakes. The 6.4 magnitude quake in 2012 also could not cause much damage because of the fact that it was preceded by smaller quakes, which released energy.”