Assam at the crossroads: Balancing development with climate resilience

Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it's here, and its effects are becoming alarmingly visible in Assam. This picturesque state, once known for its lush greenery and serene landscapes, is now feeling the intense heat of global warming.

The winters are shrinking, while the summers are stretching out longer than ever before. This year, Guwahati’s summer season lingered well into November—a troubling sign of what lies ahead.

The alarming trend was further highlighted by a recent report from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The report revealed that the Northeast experienced its hottest-ever September in 2024.

In fact, the region’s average maximum temperature hit a record high of 32.59°C, surpassing the previous record of 32.47°C set just last year. The minimum temperature also climbed to new heights, reaching 24.93°C—again, the highest since records began in 1901. September’s average maximum temperature alone was 1.87°C higher than usual, while the minimum temperature soared by 1.23°C.

This year, Assam saw its own set of grim milestones. Cities such as Guwahati, Dibrugarh, North Lakhimpur, and Jorhat recorded their highest-ever September temperatures, with the mercury soaring above 39°C. The situation was further exacerbated by a severe drought-like condition, as the state grappled with a sharp decline in monsoon rainfall.

"The most notable indicator of the changing climate in Guwahati is the increasing summer temperatures," says Partha Jyoti Das, Head of the Water, Climate & Hazard Division at Aaranyak.

"In May, for instance, the temperature in Guwahati exceeded 40°C, triggering intense heat wave conditions. We're also witnessing a rapid shrinkage in the winter season, with what little cold remains confined to just December and January,” he added.

But it’s not just the changing weather patterns that are a cause for concern—rapid urbanisation is also playing a significant role. The ambitious Guwahati Ring Road project, which promises to improve connectivity, comes with its own environmental costs.

The project will result in the felling of 3,200 trees, including 450 within the Amchang Wildlife Sanctuary. The road will also encroach upon 7.12 hectares of forest land and 44.60 hectares of non-forest land within the eco-sensitive zone.

As the government moves forward with this project, assurances have been made about mitigating the environmental impact. An animal passage plan, developed in collaboration with the State Forest Department, the Wildlife Institute of India (WII), and the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, aims to address concerns about wildlife displacement.

However, the looming questions remains - What impact will these changes have on both the people and the biodiversity of Assam? Will the vision of a modernised Assam be able to coexist with the preservation of its natural heritage?

Local & global forces at play

While the state's increasing temperatures are undeniably linked to global greenhouse gas emissions, local factors are also playing a pivotal role in exacerbating the situation.

"Urbanisation, at the cost of green cover and water bodies, is significantly affecting the local climate. Just 10 to 15 years ago, temperatures would drop at night. Now, due to the rise in concrete infrastructure, the city retains heat, a phenomenon known as the ‘Heat Island Effect’," says Dr. Narayan Sarma, a Professor of Environmental Biology and Wildlife Sciences at Cotton University.

This effect is making nights in Guwahati increasingly uncomfortable. "In the past, the cooling period would begin between 8 pm and 9 pm. Today, it doesn’t start until after midnight, sometimes between 12 am and 1 am,” he points out.

This delay in cooling is forcing residents to consume more electricity, turning to air conditioning and other cooling methods, which further compounds the strain on the region’s energy resources, he adds.

Sarma further adds that the impact of this change isn’t just environmental—it’s economic. “As the cooling period shortens, the demand for power increases, driving up the costs and adding another layer of strain on both the environment and people,” he says.

He explains how this is disrupting the delicate balance of nature. "For example, a rise in temperature in lowland areas forces species to move uphill where the environmental conditions remain more favourable,” he adds.

This intertwining of global and local factors reveals a complex, multi-faceted crisis, one that demands both immediate and long-term solutions. For Assam, the climate is no longer just a distant issue - it’s a present challenge that requires urgent action.

Towards a greener future

Compared to the long-term, typical weather conditions of the past, the climate and local weather patterns in the region have undergone massive changes.

According to a report by a news website, the Guwahati Metropolitan Area (GMA) spans approximately 275 square kilometres, and dense forests and water bodies have decreased tremendously. Based on a review of Landsat pictures from 1976 to 2018, there has been a 44.4% decrease in dense forests, a 43.4% decrease in moderately dense forests, a 17.5% decrease in open forest, and a 4.8% decrease in scrub.

“If you compare a map of Guwahati 20 years ago and the present time, people will witness that the blue areas, or the water bodies, have decreased, for which the local temperature is constantly changing,” says Sarma.

On being asked about the solutions to tackle the issue of climate change, Sarma believes that the reduction in carbon emissions will help in combating the issue.

“It's high time we take decisive action. To tackle the pressing issue of climate change, reducing carbon emissions must be our top priority—but this is easier said than done. We need to embrace renewable energy sources to power communities, and planting more trees can help lower temperatures. However, it’s important to understand that it will take 15 to 20 years for these efforts to restore the region's once-pleasant climate," Sarma adds.

Highlighting the significance of wetlands, Sarma asserted that increasing wetlands in the region will help in absorbing greenhouse gases as well.

Echoing similar solutions, Das said adaptive policies that account for the impact of climate change, must be implemented across various agro-climatic and geo-ecological zones.

"We must sensitise the public to the best practices for adapting to climate change impacts. We must support adaptitive strategies with appropriate infrastructure, civic amenities, and policies," he concluded.